Topic

Interest Rate Risk

How movements in the level and shape of the yield curve flow through to earnings, capital and economic value of equity.

2 articles

The Fed is sending hawkish signals. What scenarios should your bank or credit union be prepared for?

The Fed raised rates to 3.75–4% and signaled for more. The curve is bear-flattening, which squeezes margins and equity value at once.

Alexander Demyanets·September 18, 2026

Bar chart of net interest margin across six rate scenarios for an illustrative balance sheet: about 2.4% with static rates, 2.0% on the forward curve, then 1.4%, 0.4%, negative 0.6% and negative 1.6% under bear flattener shocks of 100, 200, 300 and 400 basis points. Source: Delfi Overwatch.

Fed PolicyInterest Rate Risk

Fed Chair Warsh Is Stuck Between a Rock and a Trump Place

The 10-year Treasury has breached 5%, core inflation is rising and markets are expecting a hike. What a cornered Fed means for bank and credit union balance sheets.

Alexander Demyanets·September 15, 2026

10-year Treasury yield, 2007 to September 14, 2026, showing the yield back at 5% for the first time since 2007 after a 0.6% low in 2020. Source: U.S. Treasury.

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